In late 90s, the still-at-large head of the Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar, asserted that his group supports jihad (holy war) in Indian-administered Kashmir but the Afghan men fighting in the disputed region had gone on their own.
Now after a decade or so, the most important question being asked in Kashmir streets is: Post the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, will the battle-hardened fighters penetrate deeper into Kashmir once again? The Taliban’s re-emergence in Afghanistan and recent Pakistan Taliban assertion that it will send fighters into Kashmir is being watched closely by Kashmir’s youth on the ground.
“Kashmir is no longer a dispute between Pakistan and India. It has become an Islamic issue along with Afghanistan and Palestine,” says Ajaz Ahmad, who operates a chain of tourist houseboats in the world-famous Dal Lake in Kashmir. “Whatever the outcome of the conflict in Afghanistan it will have spillover effects.”
Recently in January, top Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan leader Wali Ur Rehman, in a rare video appearance, pledged to send fighters to Kashmir. Claiming that the Jihad launched by the Pakistani government inside Kashmir has failed to yield the desired result, the TTP said it will launch its own jihad in the valley and talks about sending its own jihadi forces there.
Later on February 28, a letter purportedly written by the Punjab faction of TTP leader, Maulana Asmatullah Muawiya warned the next battlefield for all Mujahideen will be Kashmir.
“The Mujahideen will fight against Indian forces inside Kashmir but they will not seek the support of ISI,” the letter read.
In fact last year India army’s topmost official Lieutenant General Om Prakash, who is also the General Officer Commanding GOC of Army’s strategic 15 Corps that looks after de facto border (Line of Control or LoC) between Indian-administered Kashmir and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, sounded an alert when he said, “I believe the Afghanistan withdrawal should not be abrupt. It will be catastrophic for Afghanistan and Kashmir just as it was in 2001 when 2,000 militants were killed here. In fact, I’m worried that it could be even worse.”
Kashmir, where anti-India sentiments remain deep is witnessing an armed rebellion that began in 1989. Over 5000 foreign militants, mostly from Afghanistan and Pakistan have been killed here. Many came from as far as Sudan and Chechnya too.
Over 70,000 people have died in the conflict. Kashmir remains a disputed territory since 1947 claimed by both India and Pakistan who rule it in two portions but claim it in entirety. India considers the entire region its integral part, but Pakistan and majority of population want Kashmir to remain Independent or decide whether to stay with India or merge with Pakistan as options of right to self-determination.
United Nations and Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) too back this demand. In 2009, the Himalayan region got a mention in Guinness Book of World Records declared Kashmir as “planet’s largest militarized area. Other things that distinguish Kashmir from other conflict regions is the presence of the highest battlefield on earth ‘Siachen’ and the presence of some 500,000 post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) civilians, according to experts.
The talk to the Taliban coming into Kashmir is also being discussed in main newspaper editions, almost every week.
“In view of this, we may not see any organized major violent activities by the Taliban in Kashmir after the American exit in 2014. However, there may be individual attempts at infiltration by volunteers as has been happening in the past,” writes eminent Kashmir columnist Mohammad Ashraf in a local daily.
“Intentionally or unintentionally, Indians by fanning Hindu-Muslim divide are creating a ripe situation for Taliban whether Afghan or Pakistani to intervene in Kashmir or otherwise. Thus even if there was no chance for Taliban coming to Kashmir, we may ourselves be responsible for bringing them in,” he says.
Another columnist Inam-ul-Rehmaan says unlike Afghans, Kashmiris are not going to bear the hardships like the former.
“Unlike Afghans, Kashmiris don’t believe that for creating a new order you need to destroy the older one. Kashmiris have demonstrated it repeatedly that although they would like to change the system but without endorsing the hardships. The Indian worries that Taliban would trickle over to Kashmir are based on insomniac illusions,” he says.
But how’re separatists taking this impression.
Recently, the powerful pro-Pakistan leader in Kashmir Syed Ali Shah Geelani, rejected even the Qaeda chief Ayaman Al Zawahiri’s call that said UN-backed resolutions should be eschewed. He even declared that Kashmir couldn’t afford to continue their resistance with the guns.
“Kashmir’s is a non-violent fight. There is no other solution acceptable to us but UN resolutions,” he said, adding, “but New Delhi is pushing Kashmiris towards the gun. It believes the occupation of Kashmir by its seven lakh soldiers is the solution,” he added.
The global Al Qaeda or TTP has a presence in many areas but despite being closer to the region, Kashmir never saw Taliban or Al Qaeda making inroads in the disputed region.
“That’s why the Taliban would come to Kashmir have no substance. We have offered sacrifices of over one lakh people in the last 22 years. Our struggle is indigenous and I believe it will continue to be so,” says Yasin Malik, a former pro-Independence commander of a rebel group Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF). Malik gave up weapons in 1994 to launch a pro-Independence political party that seeks resolution of Kashmir dispute via non-violent means.
“But the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan could lead to a change in Kashmir. The move has the potential to change the political discourse in Kashmir,” he warns.
India and Pakistan formally entered into a ceasefire in 2003. But both the countries failed to reach at an accord over the Kashmir dispute. Even as the militant attacks have reached to the lowest ebb, Kashmiri leaders say New Delhi never offered any soup to fix the issue and the troops withdrawal in Afghanistan will create an impression that violence ultimately pays.
“So when the troop withdrawal in Afghanistan and the subsequent atmosphere for talks will begin in Afghanistan what will Kashmir youth make out of it? I believe people, especially youth, would pose a question whether non-violent movements had failed and the gun was the only way to resolve Kashmir,” Malik believes.
But many, including former fighters, are averse to the takeover of indigenous militancy by foreign groups. In his modest house in Srinagar’s Lasjan area, Ghulam Qadir Rather, 66, turns page after page of a local Urdu newspaper to read how Kashmir’s political situation is shaping up amid fractures in the separatist leadership.
Rather, a former commander of the pro-Azadi Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), who even shook hands with al Qaeda supremo Osama bin Laden during the jihad against Russia in the late 1980s, says it was the victory of Afghans and Chechens over the Russians that had inspired Kashmiri youth to wage war against India.
“When the atrocities are infinite, the gun remains the only answer,” says Rather. “But the gun should remain in the hands of the Kashmiris. Not foreign fighters, but Kashmiris have to negotiate with both New Delhi and Islamabad.”
In Kashmir is deriving meaning from the troop withdrawal in Afghanistan, Rather says the youth picking up guns will die “meaningless deaths” because of an “immature” separatist leadership, which has failed to negotiate with New Delhi from the pulpit of power.
“We say we will draw inspiration from the Taliban. But even after becoming politicians, Taliban leaders fought alongside the cadres. They didn’t leave guns and start negotiations. It wasn’t the case in Kashmir. It won’t be in the future too,” he says.
[NOTE: Interview of Rather was conducted in August 2012. He died few months ago in Srinagar.]